By Liam Bailey
I said in my last article that the U.S. arms sale to the gulf is a possible sign that a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq might be closer than Bush wants to admit. With all my conviction I say: there will be no U.S. victory in Iraq and eventually they will have to pullout, if not before Bush leaves office then sometime soon after.
When reading an article about the continued violence in Somalia with my last article still fresh in my mind, I asked myself the question, where will the world be after the Bush administration? Further, will things calm down, or have the Neocons caused so much friction and meddled so much that the explosion of violence in so many places around the world will continue to worsen?
I will attempt to answer my questions in a series of articles, and through the course will also inadvertently show why electing the son of a U.S. President, as President is perhaps a mistake, that should not be repeated.
In most of the worlds current conflict zones the U.S. has had some involvement, but never has their involvement been as catastrophic as under (the infantile megalomaniac) President Bush Jr.
Part I: Iraq
In Iraq for decades the U.S. has made mistake after mistake, funding, arming and otherwise cosying up to the maniac Saddam Hussein throughout the 80’s and early 90’s — under the same policy that the U.S. follows time after time, always to the world’s detriment: my enemy’s enemy is my friend. Bush Jr’s predecessors learned from their mistakes when Saddam invaded Kuwait late 1990, therein doing the very thing his U.S. funding was supposed to stop Iran (their common enemy), doing: threatening the vital oil supplies of the Middle East.
Bush Snr was in charge when the U.S. teamed up with the U.N. to go and drive Saddam’s forces back out of Kuwait. In doing so he decided to start uprisings in Iraq’s oppressed Shiite and Kurdish communities, in television addresses promising their uprisings would receive U.S. support to topple Saddam. Help never came, Saddam’s forces fled Kuwait and crushed the revolts — thousands were killed in reprisals.
The reason Bush Sr didn’t send forces on into Iraq is likely the same reason that the current occupation is a disaster: Saddam’s oppression keeping the lid on a sectarian powder keg.
Though I personally believe if Bush Sr had ordered U.S. troops to chase Saddam’s fleeing forces into Iraq and finish the job — even a U.S. force alone — chasing Saddam’s men into the Shiite uprising and a war on two fronts, with the Kurdish uprising causing a third front, would have made for an easy victory.
An easy victory unlike that of the 2003 war, because the Shiite’s and Kurds wouldn’t have hated and mistrusted the U.S. for the thousands killed when they revolted on Bush Sr’s word. That also being the reason why 2003’s battle for hearts and minds was lost before it begun.
Bush Jnr went ahead and invaded Iraq either because he wanted to prove he had more bottle than his daddy and thought like many sons do, that anything their dad can do they can do better. Or he knew Iraq would turn out like it has but decided to go in for their oil anyway. I’ll let you decide.
Either way, the tyrant successfully toppled in the U.S. invasion has been replaced with hundreds of tyrants — each as maniacal and vindictive but with nobody at all to answer to. At least with Saddam we could impose sanctions and threaten to invade. Now we’ve invaded, what is left to do about the sectarian death squads.
Few deny that the forces in Iraq are doing very little to stop the violence, in fact some say they are making it worse, but what is the alternative…
A U.S. withdrawal will only see the sectarian violence worsen. Iraq will descend into a civil war field, fuelled by the continuing proxy war already being fought between the Arab states and Iran using their sectarian soldiers in Iraq. The latter is another war that will worsen after a U.S. withdrawal, and one that won’t be helped by the billions of dollars worth of arms being sold to the Arabs — by guess who, the Bush administration.
So, whether the Iraq withdrawal happens before Bush leaves office or after, there is absolutely no chance that the situation in Iraq will calm down after the Bush administration leaves office and the U.S. pulls out of Iraq.
Part II will look at what is likely to happen in Somalia after the Bush administration leaves office, will the funding of the Ethiopian occupation force continue? Will U.S contractors still be at large there?
Liam Bailey is a U.K. freelance journalist. He writes regularly for the Palestine Chronicle, Arabic Media Internet Network and is an advanced blogger on the Washington Post’s Post Global. He runs the War Pages blog and you can contact him at: email@example.com
What the Gulf Arms Sale Really Means By Liam Bailey