Nouriel Roubini
Forbes.com
03.05.09, 12:01 AM EST
There is a grave risk of a global L-shaped depression.
For those who argue that the rate of growth of economic activity is turning positive–that economies are contracting but at a slower rate than in the fourth quarter of 2008–the latest data don’t confirm this relative optimism. In 2008’s fourth quarter, gross domestic product fell by about 6% in the U.S., 6% in the euro zone, 8% in Germany, 12% in Japan, 16% in Singapore and 20% in South Korea. So things are even more awful in Europe and Asia than in the U.S.
There is, in fact, a rising risk of a global L-shaped depression that would be even worse than the current, painful U-shaped global recession. Here’s why:
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via The U.S. Financial System Is Effectively Insolvent – Forbes.com
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see
Bair Says Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year
What’s Dead (Short Answer: All Of It) (must-read)
When Securitization Blew Up; So Did the Economy By Mike Whitney
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The world economy is past even depression and is in freefall from a very steep cliff. Only debris will be left and a new system will have to be constructed.
What will the new system be?
Socialism, hopefully.
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