Nouriel Roubini: Recession Will Last 36 Months

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11 thoughts on “Nouriel Roubini: Recession Will Last 36 Months

  1. Guys, yes I think that what we’re going through is unprecedented, too, but I don’t think that matters in our lives will transform to that extreme extent. I wish to caution from indulging in easy-to-slip-into fantasies that are still not substantiated or supported by any hard facts or even solid logic, which I admit is tempting. Yes, things will never go back, exactly, to the way they were before, but I believe that they’ll go in a direction that’s somewhere in between. Lest we forget, man has proven over and over to have a short memory, and many things that we thought we’d never forget, we did – almost. Not enough time has passed yet to give us any clear idea of where are we headed in the short term, much less in the long term. I have a feeling that if we had this conversation a year from now, that new ideas, thoughts, theories and opinions will weigh in, that are not being considered now.

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  3. Paul, I didn’t to mean to underestimate the depth of the crisis we’re facing, as I fully fathom our predicament, but I see no point in useless wining and in raising the white flag of failure and surrender. I put my money on Obama because he’s nothing like Bush in his vision, courage and awareness of the caliber of the problem – he’s not trying to hide it like the Bush administration did. What he did just had to be done, and there was no way around it. In addition, regardless of what you think of this guy, he’s the only game in town, and I’d like to give him the benefit of the doubt and a chance to fix this colossal mess before I judge him to be a failure. He’s no George Bush, thank God, and it’s still way too soon to make any judgment about him. I agree with you though about the need for him to, as you said, boldly institute across the board bullet proof regulations on the banks and investment firms. I believe this guy learns fast, and has the courage to do what it takes, and for now, I will continue to be optimistic that eventually, it will take a while for sure, he’ll be able to sort out this mess.

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  5. Yes things seem rather bleak at the moment, but to announce that the US economy is collapsing is an overreaction that hasn’t been substantiated by any means, and I don’t think we should get overly caught up in this cycle of doom and gloom. I think that we are up against an unprecedented economic crisis, brought on by the catastrophic policies and blatant negligence and stupidity of the previous administration. Ok, so we are in a recession, and we’ve been there before and survived it and came out of it stronger than before, and we can do it again, but it will take sacrifices on the part of the American people. They need to trust and support the president, for he has no agenda but to get the country out of this mess left by the mother-of-all-mistakes of a president, Bush, and his sociopathic cronies, who have neither shame nor intelligence to realize the extent of the disaster they left the country with. They, from Bush himself and down, should be invistigated and put on trial for their horrendous crimes, not only against other countries, but rather for what they did to their own country, and they still have the audacity and nerve to disavow any responsibility for their mess, and push for more of the same policies that led us to this mess to begin with.
    Obama is America’s best chance to recover from this disaster, and we have, those of us who truly care about this country, to support him and be patient. He’s smart, sensible and has a great team to help him. Let’s give him time and support – I trust this guy, for he’s our only chance, and I have no doubt that he’s the best and only choice we have to handle and get us out of this mess.

    • Walid, I don’t think you understand the depth of the colossal indebtedness that the treasury is taking on in propping up the financial sector whose decision to worship the casino of derivatives was a key factor in the global financial collapse. Generations of US tax payers will be paying for this criminal behavior, and you might as well get ready for the cut and dice to long standing American social programs that will follow. Obama is not the answer. He may in fact be part of the problem unless he boldly institutes across the board bullet proof regulations on the banks and investment firms.

      • Commerce appears to be sucking into an irrevocable black hole. Almost like, forget about recessions.

        The collapse in capital and markets, the blatant fraud is so vast, we can’t know the extent of it till valuations fall to affordability, houses can be had for fair value requiring no financing, and demand for roofs mops up the excess.

        The problems with that are much of the Mcmansions built are big enough to house whole villages, and made little sense in terms of efficiency, sprawl was constructed with no orientation to the sun, and what are people gonna do with all those condos? They’re useless in the new (old) paradigm.

        The entire proceeds of the prior capitalist, mercantilist machination of the last few hundred years has just been evaporated for the time being, it appears the industrial/capitalist game of the developed world now is rather different than it was prior.

        But the psychology of the shock killed consumerism in its wake, overnight, frozen in its tracks. Like a light switch, consumerism appears to be over, and not coming back soon.

        It seems everyone knew it was wrong, that they were indulging in danger. With everyone so scared, further collapse is irrevocable, vastly outpacing the failed paper. It’s a huge, gigantic source of global business that got just suctioned off the table, for everyone.

        Balance will be ultimately found, but likely the picture of the final equilibrium will be quite different than what we’re used to.

        Not that it’s likely a post-catastrophic blade-runner road-warrior world, but based on the unprecedented nature of the collapse in commerce, which laughs at any idea of abating and only accelerates in its decline, definitely give up on any concept of ‘recovery’, it appears things are rather different now.

        We still haven’t absorbed all the other previously predicted shocks to our lifestyle of peak oil, likely terrorist retaliation, possible pandemic, guaranteed drought, some serious weather and water issues…

        This is not to preach doom, but likely the recent video on the NY Times of the couple living off the grid, growing food on their farm, making all they need themselves and laughing out loud at this calamity and the rest of us who are so obsessed with it, is more like the sustainable model that will ultimately emerge (sorta like the way most of the world has been living all this time…).

        This urban, petro-based industrial market model is a blink in the history of humanity. We worked and lived close to the land for the vast majority of the history of society, our efforts at manipulating and leveraging nature to escape some of the scramble of the wild life were quite sophisticated for most of our agrarian millenia. With IT and new tech, we will return to the land with unprecedented tools and cummunications.

        Hopefully our technological tricks will enable us to return to reality and sustainability gracefully somehow, with less of the misery of farmers past.

        Plant that kitchen garden, folks, it won’t be the first time potatoes are more valuable than paper!

        36 months is only the beginning. By then we may begin to know the new reality, and just how much the banksters got away with.

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