In response to a question from a reader I sent this out today:
Yes, I think a run on the dollar is coming. A lot of people are saying this, including a man named Dmitri Orlov who recently came out with a book entitled “Reinventing Collapse” that compares the crash of the Soviet Union in the 1990s with what he believes is coming here within a short period of time. I heard that at the last meeting of the G20 the U.S. asked Russia and China if they would agree to an orderly devaluation of the dollar, and the answer was “Nyet.” So something big is likely to happen. I don’t know what it will be. A worst case scenario is a wild hyperinflation of the dollar and a total collapse of the monetary system, followed by skyrocketing gasoline prices, etc., and another Great Depression. But the Federal Reserve is too smart just to let that happen, so they will likely try in some way to keep the economy afloat while engaging in an orderly devaluation that will reduce the overall levels of debt. There are many ways to tackle this but it will require strong central planning and maybe even “monetary reform.” The possible scenarios are endless and much depends on the political will of Obama and Congress as to how much control they can exert over the financiers. I am hesitant to predict total gloom and doom, though it is certainly a possibility. One thing that could trigger it would be if the U.S. can no longer buy oil from abroad. That depends also on whether “Peak Oil” really exists or not. But clearly big changes are coming. Our country has become so fragile. Most of our population is a month away from starvation when you look at the food pipeline.
Copyright 2010 by Richard C. Cook
Richard C. Cook is a former federal government analyst who writes on public policy issues. His website is www.richardccook.com. His latest book is We Hold These Truths: The Hope of Monetary Reform (Tendril Press, 2009).
Follow up article: How Can Localities Cope if the Dollar Crashes? by Richard C. Cook
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