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by Richard C. Cook
April 24, 2010
I am advising all readers to examine carefully an article entitled “The Imminent Crash of the Oil Supply: What Is Going to Happen and How It Came to Pass That We Weren’t Forewarned.” The article appeared on April 23, 21010, on the Intelligence Daily website and was written by Nicholas C. Arguimbau, an appellate and environmental lawyer licensed in California and residing in western Massachusetts.
The article cites a May 9, 2009, meeting at the U.S. Department of Energy, where a chart was presented that shows world liquid fuel production falling by half from 2012 to 2030. Of course most of this liquid fuel is petroleum.
It’s not a problem for the oil companies. If supply falls by half, prices will at least double, so that profits will remain bountiful. The problem is for the nations and their populations that compete for oil.
Consumption in China, India, Brazil, and other developing nations is increasing rapidly, so that nations like the U.S. accustomed to unfettered consumption are likely to be able to import less from international sources. The potential for “oil wars” is obvious.
Even if oil remains available, priority will obviously go to the military and governments, followed by big business with lobbying power and economies of scale. Last in priority will be the consumer and small business. Among other things, the mobility we are used to from cars and even mass transit is likely to fall by the wayside.
Of course the outlook could change with new technologies making oil extraction more economical. But the deficit will be so enormous that technology alone is unlikely to solve the problem, even if additional sources of oil, such as U.S. offshore sites, are brought on-line.
So what is likely to result in a world of almost seven billion people whose economic infrastructure and livelihood depend on oil? How will governments respond to the social chaos that could emerge when consumers are unable to do much of what they could do in the past, such as drive long commutes or eat cheap supermarket food grown with petroleum-based fertilizers?
If government projections shape up as predicted in this Department of Energy chart, the world we know will be gone permanently. Of course, reduced consumption will be favorable for the environment, but society will change radically.
The amazing thing is how few citizen groups, activists, local governments, etc., are seriously preparing for such a future, or even discussing it. But you can be sure that national governments, the military, the international bankers, and big business are.
To read the article CLICK HERE.
Copyright 2010 by Richard C. Cook
Richard C. Cook is a former federal government analyst who writes on public policy issues. His website is www.richardccook.com. His latest book is We Hold These Truths: The Hope of Monetary Reform (Tendril Press, 2009).
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